Matthew Yglesias: "The thinking seems to be that the Defense Department will more-or-less stay as-is. Meanwhile, Powell and Armitage will leave the State Department. Widespread speculation has Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State, John Bolton as Deputy Secretary, and John Danforth staying put as UN ambassador. If this is right, the key unknown is what happens at the NSC. The most likely candidates are Deputy National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley or mysterious realist svengali Robert Blackwill. Worst-case scenario as someone moving over from Dick Cheney's office to take the NSC over. It's a bit hard to say what the upshot of any of that would be."