Lileks has it cracked: "Confidence that comes from the heart & gut usually plays better than confidence that comes from the brain. Whoa! A new theory, developed here at the kitchen table at 12:13 AM! It’s like Rock-paper-scissors.
Heart and gut beat brain.
Brain beats heart if there's no gut.
Gut beats brain if brain has no heart.
Brain and gut beans heart.
Okay, I’m just making this up as I go along. But consider: Clinton had a spectacular ability to combine heart, brain and gut into one meaty electable package. Reagan was mostly gut. Nixon was brain. Carter: heart and brain, no gut. Mondale: brain. Dukakis: brain. Dole: gut, but one that concluded in a colostomy bag. Gore: brain. Bush 2000: ran on brain-heart ticket, probably elected because people suspected he had gut. Bush 04: heart-gut. Dean: BRAINBRAINBRAIN.